Cameroon Presidential Elections: Handicaping the main candidates.

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Presidential elections will be held on the 9th of October 2011 in Cameroon. The electoral process in this impoverished West African nation is designed to befuddle even the most astute electoral observer, and this is for a reason. There is an intense horse trading that takes place during the campaign and the incumbent, Paul Biya uses the fluid electoral laws to his own advantage. Here is a short presentation of the notable candidates and their strengths and/or flaws.

Paul Biya

Aged 78, and essentially ruling the country since 1975 when he was appointed Prime Minister, he has held steadfastly unto power and uses all means at his disposal to eliminate any rivals. With time, some ambitious young cabinet members found ways of outsmarting Biya, and came pretty close to effecting a bloodless regime change. But to forestall any danger to his iron grip on power, he just threw them in jail and tossed away the keys.

Atangana Mebara, Polycarpe Abah Abah, Titus Edzoa and others who remain jailed without judgment are a testament to Mr Biya's tactics. Recently re-elected chairman of the CPDM (Cameroon People's Democratic Movement) party that he founded on the ashes of the CNU (Cameroon National Union), he is by far the favorite to win the elections. He has the sprawling government apparatus that will descend on the countryside to campaign for him, and anyone who has a post of responsibility and intends to keep their employment simply has to bring in the votes.

His electoral campaign war chest is as deep as the Cameroon treasury, and has been outsourced to French companies (he does not like anything Cameroonian, his children are all born and educated outside Cameroon), who in turn did a cheap and shameless copy of US President Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign logo.

He is not a favorite of the International community and most Cameroonians, who feel he is not in touch with reality, for example, neglecting infrastructural development and still keeping in touch with former Libyan leader, Muammar Khadaffi. An envoy from the deposed Libyan leader, Joma Ibrahim Amer was received with all honors at the Presidency just on the heels of the American Ambassador to Cameroon, His excellency Robert P. Jackson.

Still unsure of his popularity, he undertook a timid ride around town in a fancy Bentley last weekend, and sure enough, the proles lined the streets and cheered. It is unclear whether they were cheering for Mr Biya....or the Bentley.

John Fru Ndi

Erstwhile leader of the Cameroon opposition, Mr John Fru Ndi has seen the number of seats his party has in parliament dwindle to the point that he is now irrelevant in Cameroonian political discourse. His heavy handed techniques, and lack of direction and focus in party affairs made some of his more capable lieutenants to jump camp. The latest cases reported in the local media are of senior SDF (Social Democratic Front) militants being poached by the CPDM. Kum Henry Ichu, regional head of the SDF stronghold of the North West region, and certainly a key player in the upcoming presidential elections, jumped ship at the eleventh hour, and is now a CPDM member. Many believe this to be the work of an ex-convict, and now minister in Biya's government, Nji Atanga who heads the national Security Council of Cameroon.

Having valiantly fought to remain head of the SDF since it was founded in 1990, Mr Fru Ndi has been accused of showing the same anti-democratic tendencies Cameroonians despise in Biya. For that reason, he will come a very distant second, with the majority of his votes coming from the capital of the North West region, Bamenda, and some dispersed votes will originate from minor stakeholders who have carved tiny fiefdoms for themselves in Douala in the Littoral region and the West region. He is no longer a credible politician, and if ever elected, will be a worse dictator than Biya.

 Kah Walla Edith

With a Western education, and the community organization chops to prove her competence, she is certainly going to be injecting a lot of excitement into this years' presidential race in Cameroon. Kah Walla is in her mid-forties, and at the prime to serve her nation. Unfortunately, her constituency is rather narrow, mainly made up of petty traders known as "buyam-sellam", and geographically limited to the Douala metropolitan area in the Littoral region in Cameroon. She is running under the banner of her newly created Cameroon People's Party (CPP).

She is running a very strong online campaign. Maybe she will need to tone down on her campaign homepage because it has the fault of being too media rich for the intended audience in Cameroon where internet connections are generally slow. Her design team should have light pages that load fast, and contain only critical information, while avoiding the fancy colors that bog down her website...and ideas.

When she tested her heft in February this year in the restive city of Douala, she drew no traction, and was left drenched and with a lasting image as an outsider. However, she has been able to spread her word on mass media, such as radio and using internet sites like Facebook and Tweeter. She is the darling of the International Community, but lacks the fire in the belly to pull one against older cats like Biya and Fru Ndi. Her candidacy is nonetheless refreshing and maybe she could get an appointment on a few moribund boards after the election as a consolation prize.

 Adamou Ndam Njoya

A perennial also-ran in Cameroonian politics, Mr Adamu Ndam Njoya of the CDU (Cameroon Democratic Union) had the double misfortune of being appointed to government in the waning days of the Ahmadou Ahidjo regime, and also at a tender age. When he left government in 1980, he found himself in the wilderness and since then, has been unable to have any influence beyond his native Foumban in the Western region of the country, where he is mayor. This will be his umpteenth attempt at a comeback. Mr Biya has nothing to fear from the CDU, and since Mr Adamou Ndam Njoya has been shown to be a political lightweight, he may not even be given a consolation prize after all is said and done.

Except for a major disaster which may befall the very old and tired Mr Biya (unlikely since he is always in on vacation in Switzerland and not working), the CPDM candidate that he is will win an overwhelming majority in the upcoming presidential elections in Cameroon. The SDF will come a very distant second and the rest of the field will come in with a few votes from close friends and family members. They will have the dubious honor some day in the distant future to tell anyone who would care to listen to them that once upon a time, they almost became president of Cameroon but for...