Are Paul Biya and Chantal Biya afraid of the Fotso Empire?

The story about the Fotso Group and its run-ins with the law, that for months has had the news media in Cameroon on a frenzy is slowly unraveling in public. It will have an ugly end.

For a recap, the Fotso Group is Cameroon's premier agro-industrial giant that spans many industries (from growing green beans to operating an Airline), and countries. It is also a major employer in West Africa.

The head of the Group, Yves Michel Fotso, who doubles as chairman of the board of directors of the Fotso Group's flagship Commercial Bank of Cameroon (CBC) has been having serious legal trouble, with authorities in Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea, the gravity of which could not be guessed from the outside.

Now with a dangerous game of one upmanship initiated by the media savvy Yves Michel Fotso going on in Cameroon, we are guaranteed a nasty outcome. The government of Cameroon through the minister of Economy and Finance Essimi Menye naively fell for the bait laid out by Mr Fotso, by responding to an open letter written to the Minister of Justice and Keeper of the Seals, Ahmadou Ali.

At the onset, the Fotso bank, CBC, opened up a branch in Equatorial Guinea, then shortly later had their business license revoked. Then, the bank was seized by authorities in Cameroon in coordination with the central African regional banking regulator COBAC, and an administrator was appointed to take over operations.

The reason for all of these problems was that upon reviewing the accounts of the bank, it was discovered that many loans had been made, mostly to entities with close ties to the Fotsos totaling CFA 60 Billion. A major sticking point was the allegation that Mr Yves Michel Fotso had borrowed from the bank about CFA 10 Billion. So, Paul Biya and his government are afraid of what that kind of money may do in the hands of someone with a very good distribution network bent on de stabilizing the country. They must fear, that what happened in the Central African Republic, where General Bozize seized power, might happen to Cameroon or Equatorial Guinea.

You do not start an uprising out of thin air in West Africa. The people need to eat. So the reasoning is that with the CBC bank's branches serving as points to pay out cash to insurgents, the whole country could be taken over in a short space of time.

The prospect of being deposed has now brought Biya close to Obiang Nguema of Equatorial Guinea. They need each other now more than ever. They have sons, Frank Biya and Theodorin Obiang, to whom they plan to hand over power in keeping with the current trend with dictatorships, and whoever does this first will need the other to organize a state visit to grant legitimacy to the heir of their regime.

What Yves Michel Fotso should realize is that he is now playing on a different turf. He seems to be doing it right as he invited the media into the duel and with the world watching, he is immune.

What he should do is openly join the opposition in defiance of Mr Biya. Such a move will add to the momentum that the opposition in Cameroon is amassing against Mr. Biya in 2011.

As the drama unfolds, and astronomical amounts of money and power come to play, many may forget the bigger storm that is brewing - millions of Cameroonians who are slowing waiting for 2011 and the chance to send Paul Biya and Chantal Biya and Frank Biya packing to their new home in Switzerland.

Leading presidential candidate, Kah Walla will be ready to rally all Cameroonians to start the patriotic task of Nation- building, from the ashes of what would be left after of 28 tedious years under Biya's regime.

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