Paul Biya: Bamenda, December 7th 2010

On Tuesday, December 7th 2010, life will come to a standstill in Bamenda, and pretty much everywhere else in Cameroon. The presidential election to hold in 2011 will most certainly be decided here in Bamenda on that fateful day. Expect Paul Biya to show up.

In a brazen move which at the time seemed like the sort of daring to which African leaders loved showing, 77 year old Biya announced he will be heading to the opposition stronghold in Bamenda for the country's military's 50th anniversary. But in today's media where events are chronicled minute by minute, what seemed like a wise decision a year ago has now turned into a thorn in Biya's flesh.

The anniversary has been postponed at least three times. If we are to believe Mr Biya's word any longer, then he effectively has less than 25 days to show up in Bamenda or take another serious flogging in opinion polls.

So, after a lot of feet dragging, the date of December 7th 2010 has been chosen as the day when the world will see whether Biya will dare show up in Bamenda.

The last time he was in town, the state run media CRTV had exclusive access and drowned out any competing views. Now, it is a very different playing field. Mobile phones with video cameras are ubiquitous, reporting is instantaneous, and any poor behavior by Biya's thuggish security detail will be dimly viewed by the international community.

So it is in this climate of distrust and uncertainty that Biya has to face the people of Cameroon. The Fons will be there, anyone who is somebody in town will be there, and all civil servants will be invited.

The one great absentee, the one that really matters, will sadly be absent. The population of Bamenda will not be on hand the welcome Paul Biya on the 7th of December 2010, and that gesture, fully represents the way Cameroonians feel. May Mr Biya take note.
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